The European long term strategy "Blue Growth" is intended to support sustainable growth in the marine and maritime sectors as a whole. Seas and oceans are drivers for the European economy and have great potential for innovation and growth but they are neither inexhaustible nor immune to damage so their uncontrolled exploitation could pose a great risk to the marine environment.

Exploiting marine ecosystem models can be useful for several MSFD related purposes, such as to determine baseline conditions in the past and to estimate the impact of pressures and the suitability of measures in the future, to complement scarce datasets and inform on prioritization of sampling activities.

Marine ecosystem modeling in the SEACOAST (JRC) project comprises types of modeling codes that are relevant to MFSD, implemented on different spatial (sub-regional and regional) and temporal (hindcast and scenarios) scales, complemented by essential data (bathymetry, initial, boundary forcing, in and output) that are inherently coupled to each other.

Marine ecosystem modelling at JRC is addressing the complex impact of drivers and assessing ecosystem responses necessary to address the requirements of descriptors in the MSFD and be useful for impact analyses of Blue Growth strategies. The implemented numerical models can simulate and predict changes in the state of the marine environment and ecosystems in response to different drivers and scenarios, and should ultimately be accessible to provide explicit support to the decision-making process.

© European Union, 2015
Macias Moy Diego; Garcia Gorriz Elisa; Stips Adolf (2015) Productivity changes in the Mediterranean Sea for the twenty-first century in response to changes in the regional atmospheric forcing. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2015.00079

Lessin G, Raudsepp U, Stips A (2014) Modelling the Influence of Major Baltic Inflows on Near-Bottom Conditions at the Entrance of the Gulf of Finland. PLoS ONE 9(11): e112881. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0112881

Macías, D., A. Stips, and E. Garcia-Gorriz (2014), The relevance of deep chlorophyll maximum in the open Mediterranean Sea evaluated through 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical coupled simulations, Ecol. Model, 281, 26–37, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.03.002.

Macias, D., E. Garcia-Gorriz, C. Piroddi, and A. Stips (2014), Biogeochemical control of marine productivity in the Mediterranean Sea during the last 
50 years, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 28, doi:10.1002/2014GB004846.

Macías, D., E. García-Gorríz, and A. Stips (2013), Understanding the causes of recent warming of Mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?, Plos One, 8, e81591, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081591.

Miladinova S, Stips A, (2010), Sensitivity of oxygen dynamics in the water column of the Baltic Sea to external forcing Ocean Science, 01/2010; DOI: 10.5194/os-6-461-2010