MCC Documents Repository

The report has the aim of contributing to the governance challenge of how to integrate the various aspects of marine policy (fisheries management, biodiversity conservation and marine environmental protection) as part of a coherent ecosystem approach. It considers how current science knowledge on marine ecosystems and the organisation of science can support an integrated approach to management of the seas. The report looks at a number of key aspects for sustainable development in changing oceans and seas, and particularly highlights the key scientific challenges in addressing these issues. The report presents both recommendations from science for policy development, and recommendations on policy for science.

The European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) seeks to achieve, for all European seas 'Good Environmental Status' (GEnS, Borjia et al., 2011) by 2020; on the other hand ecological models are currently one of the strongest approaches used to predicting and understanding the consequences of anthropogenic and climate-driven changes in the natural environment. This presentation will highlight the results of a review conducted under an FP7 project called DEVOTES showing 1. current capabilities of the modelling community to inform on indicators outlined in the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), with a special focus on the following three descriptors: biodiversity (D1), food webs (D4), non-indigenous species (D2) and seafloor integrity (D6); 2. which models are able to demonstrate the linkages between indicators and ecosystem structure/function and the impact of pressures on state and thus indicators; 3. gaps in model capability and needs for development. In addition, in order to facilitate the implementation of management policies like the MSFD and explore future plausible scenarios, some preliminary results will be presented on spatial and temporal evolution of the Mediterranean marine ecosystem from 1950 to 2010 and structural and functional changes of the basin using specific model derived indicators.

The opportunistic red tide forming heteroptrophic dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans and the jellyfish (medusae and ctenophore) blooms are prominent features of the coastal and marginal sea ecosystems. Their distinguishing feature is too often act as their trophic dead ends, to introduce additional top-down controls and divert a part of energy flow from higher trophic level predators of the cretaceous food webs. In general, little is known about jellyfish and Noctiluca-mediated changes and their feedback mechanisms govern the general food web dynamics are poorly understood. The present modeling study indicates that their dissolved organic matter and inorganic nutrients release contribute to retaining nutrients effectively within the upper layer water column, sustaining the bacterial and algal productions, providing bottom-up resource supply for higher trophic levels throughout the year, and recovering a part of the energy diverted to the Noctiluca and jellyfish shunts. Noctiluca bloom events are found to be particularly pronounced if they coincide with the jellyfish blooms.

With this talk, we present the general structure being developed at JRC to build a 'modelling framework' of EU regional seas. The components of the framework and the different applications already made to regional basins are presented. Furthermore, an example for the evolution of biogeochemical conditions in the Mediterranean Sea during the last 50 years (1960-2010) is shown. The time evolutions of primary and secondary productions in the entire basin are assessed against available independent data on fisheries yields and catches per unit effort for the same time period. Concordant patterns are found in the time-series of all biological variables (from the model and from fisheries statistics), with low values at the beginning of the series, a later increase with maximum values reached at the end of the 1990's and a posterior stabilization or a small decline. Spectral analysis of the annual biological time-series reveals coincident low-frequency signals in all of them; the first, more energetic signal, peaks at 2000 while the second one (less energetic) presents maximum values at around 1982. Almost identical low-frequency signals are found in the nutrient loads of the main rivers of the basin and in the integrated (0-100 meters) mean nutrient concentrations in the marine ecosystem. Our analysis shows, hence, that the control of marine productivity (from plankton to fish) in the Mediterranean basin seem to be principally mediated through bottom-up processes that could be traced back to the characteristics of riverine discharges.

The Guadalquivir estuary is a hot spot for environmental and human conflicts. The estuary and its immediate surroundings are presently home to 1.7 million people clustered in 90 population settlements. Aquaculture, navigation, agriculture, urbanization, tourism, salt production or fisheries are among the human activities stressing the estuarine environment. This environment includes very sensitive habitats such as Doñana National Park, a wetland considered a UNESCO-MAB Biosphere Reserve and World Heritage site. In this context, the recent decision by the Port Authority of Seville to extend the program of dredging so as to significantly increase the depth of the navigational section of the estuary triggered social alarm, and created the need for a comprehensive analysis of the estuary and the potential consequences of human actions on its physical and ecological dynamics. In the present communication we describe how a simple model based on previous formulations of the marine pelagic food web, but adapted to the special characteristics of the Guadalquivir estuary, assisted in providing this comprehensive, high quality baseline understanding, necessary to meet the demands of the stakeholders. The communication will also outline alternative approaches to probabilistically modelling the impact of estuarine and oceanographic processes on fishery resources at the Gulf of Cádiz shelf, including the economic impact on the sector.

Hydrological and marine models can be useful for several MSFD related purposes and Blue Growth action plans, such as to determine baseline conditions in the past and to estimate the impact of pressures and the suitability of measures in the future (scenario analysis), to complement scarce datasets and inform on prioritization of sampling activities. The modelling toolbox proposes end-to-end modelling, which tries to represent the entire system by including all relevant processes in the system, from hydrology and physics to chemistry, and plankton to fish. The suite of models considered represent a comprehensive toolbox, addressing the complex impact of drivers and assessing ecosystem responses necessary to address the requirements of descriptors in the MSFD and be useful for impact analyses of Blue Growth strategies. Such numerical models can simulate and predict changes in the state of the marine environment and ecosystems in response to different drivers and scenarios, and should ultimately be accessible to provide explicit support to the decision-making process.

ICES as revised the MSFD Manuals of D3, D4 and D6 based on the results of three workshops and on feedback received from EU Member States, Regional Sea Conventions, NGOs, other stakeholders and the European Commission.