D. Macias, A. Stips, E. Garcia-Gorriz. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, 21027, Ispra, ITALY
With this talk, we present the general structure being developed at JRC to build a 'modelling framework' of EU regional seas. The components of the framework and the different applications already made to regional basins are presented. Furthermore, an example for the evolution of biogeochemical conditions in the Mediterranean Sea during the last 50 years (1960-2010) is shown. The time evolutions of primary and secondary productions in the entire basin are assessed against available independent data on fisheries yields and catches per unit effort for the same time period. Concordant patterns are found in the time-series of all biological variables (from the model and from fisheries statistics), with low values at the beginning of the series, a later increase with maximum values reached at the end of the 1990's and a posterior stabilization or a small decline. Spectral analysis of the annual biological time-series reveals coincident low-frequency signals in all of them; the first, more energetic signal, peaks at 2000 while the second one (less energetic) presents maximum values at around 1982. Almost identical low-frequency signals are found in the nutrient loads of the main rivers of the basin and in the integrated (0-100 meters) mean nutrient concentrations in the marine ecosystem. Our analysis shows, hence, that the control of marine productivity (from plankton to fish) in the Mediterranean basin seem to be principally mediated through bottom-up processes that could be traced back to the characteristics of riverine discharges.
JRC, modelling, modelling framework,
Kick-off workshop of the Network of Experts for ReDeveloping Models of the European Marine Environment
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